NOAA predicts above normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season; here’s the full outlook

WASHINGTON — Colorado State University released their 2024 Atlantic hurricane season predictions in April, and now it’s time for the outlook from the official agency that issues weather alerts.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which runs the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center, released their 2024 hurricane outlook Thursday morning.

NOAA hosted a news conference at the National Press Club in Washington, D.C., during which officials announced the expected storm activity for this coming season, which begins on June 1.

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year.

For hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, NOAA predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

We could be in a La Niña this summer. How will that impact hurricane season?

The upcoming hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific and reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 named storms. Of those, eight to 13 are forecasted to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including four to seven major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher).

Of note, Francine and Milton are new names this year after Florence and Michael were retired due to being such destructive storms in the past.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, before the historical peak of the season.

NOAA’s prediction for the central Pacific hurricane season is contrary to the Atlantic as they predict a below-normal 2024 hurricane season for this region. You can take a look at their findings for the central Pacific here.

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